Forecasting with Out-Liars. In this Short Talk episode John Mink joins Judith Germain to discuss forecasting challenges, sharing lessons from a career navigating supply chain complexities. John encourages curiosity, empathy and taking responsibility for oneโs cultural impact, believing small positive actions can help break cycles of blame and barrier-building between teams.
Key Takeaways
- Culture is critical for accurate forecasting and good business outcomes. Blame culture leads to poor results.
- Assumptions must be aligned before forecasting. Understand market conditions and business goals first.
- Incentives should consider overall business health โ revenue, costs, cash flow, customer service. Not just forecast accuracy.
- Bias creeps in when forecast tied too closely to individual incentives. Need holistic view.
- Methodical approach: agree on assumptions, align on goals, unbiased data inputs.
Topics:
Johnโs Passion for the Subject
John shares that he is passionate about forecasting and supply chain management because he has seen the impacts firsthand of poor practices leading to business failures. He aims to help companies improve these processes.
Cultureโs Role in Forecasting
John explains how culture, especially blame culture, negatively affects forecasting and business outcomes. Need openness and alignment between teams.
Assumptions
John advises first aligning on market assumptions before forecasting. Understand business conditions and goals. John discusses how individual incentives and bias in forecasts can hurt the overall business. Advocates holistic metrics and unbiased inputs.
In this conversation John stresses aligning all forecasters on key assumptions like market conditions before inputting individual forecasts, to establish a shared baseline and prevent wasted arguing.
John Mink is a Supply Chain Executive.
Maverick leadership is all about thinking outside the box and challenging the status quo. Itโs about having the courage to take risks and the confidence to lead in a way that is authentic and genuine.
But amplifying your influence as a leader isnโt just about having a strong vision or a big personality. Itโs also about having the right leadership capability and being able to execute on your ideas and plans.
The consequences of not having the right level of influence as a leader can be significant. Without the ability to inspire and motivate others, you may struggle to achieve your goals and make a real impact.
How Influential Are you? Take the scorecard at amplifyyourinfluence.scoreapp.com and see.ย
John Mink can be found on LinkedIn here.
You can listen to Episode 389 on any of the popular podcast platforms or apps (including Spotify, and Audible). If you prefer to listen to your browser you can do that below. Enjoy!