Forecasting with Out-Liars. In this Short Talk episode John Mink joins Judith Germain to discuss forecasting challenges, sharing lessons from a career navigating supply chain complexities. John encourages curiosity, empathy and taking responsibility for one’s cultural impact, believing small positive actions can help break cycles of blame and barrier-building between teams.
- Culture is critical for accurate forecasting and good business outcomes. Blame culture leads to poor results.
- Assumptions must be aligned before forecasting. Understand market conditions and business goals first.
- Incentives should consider overall business health – revenue, costs, cash flow, customer service. Not just forecast accuracy.
- Bias creeps in when forecast tied too closely to individual incentives. Need holistic view.
- Methodical approach: agree on assumptions, align on goals, unbiased data inputs.
John’s Passion for the Subject
John shares that he is passionate about forecasting and supply chain management because he has seen the impacts firsthand of poor practices leading to business failures. He aims to help companies improve these processes.
Culture’s Role in Forecasting
John explains how culture, especially blame culture, negatively affects forecasting and business outcomes. Need openness and alignment between teams.
John advises first aligning on market assumptions before forecasting. Understand business conditions and goals. John discusses how individual incentives and bias in forecasts can hurt the overall business. Advocates holistic metrics and unbiased inputs.
In this conversation John stresses aligning all forecasters on key assumptions like market conditions before inputting individual forecasts, to establish a shared baseline and prevent wasted arguing.
John Mink is a Supply Chain Executive.
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John Mink can be found on LinkedIn here.
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